3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Ronnie Stanley as a first-round pick at #32 (range #25-#39, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. School SP+ 22.4 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 17 spots below the room's consensus #15 — don't pay sticker price. The 17-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects John Theus as a Day 3 dart throw at #176 (range #169-#183, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 26% — manageable. The call is a value lean: #176 against a consensus #202 is a 26-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, and the wide band around the 26% bust number says size it modestly.
Draftanomics projects Jerald Hawkins as a mid-round flyer at #137 (range #130-#144, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #70 and the model won't take him before #137 — a 67-spot markdown. The 67-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.