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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (S)
KJ
Karl Joseph
S · West Virginia
22.6 yo · 5'10" · 205 lb
DB
Deon Bush
S · Miami (FL)
22.7 yo · 6'0" · 199 lb
JK
Jayron Kearse
S · Clemson
22.2 yo · 6'4" · 216 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Karl Joseph
Predicted pick
#62
range #36–#166
Bust probability· rough estimate
2%
Consensus rank
#52
on 16 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Deon Bush
Predicted pick
#229
range #73–#228
Bust probability· rough estimate
4%
Consensus rank
#113
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Jayron Kearse
Predicted pick
#84
range #28–#205
Bust probability· rough estimate
5%
Consensus rank
#48
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Karl Joseph· CB / S
  • Deon Bush· CB / S
  • Jayron Kearse· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionKarl Joseph50
  • AthleticismDeon Bush50
  • AgeJayron Kearse84
  • ConsensusKarl Joseph47
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Karl Joseph50
  • Breakout ageKarl Joseph50
  • WorkloadKarl Joseph50
  • RAS × productionKarl Joseph50

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Karl Joseph
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Deon Bush
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Jayron Kearse
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Karl Joseph
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Deon Bush
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Jayron Kearse
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Karl JosephDeon BushJayron Kearse· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Karl Joseph

+0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting total career snaps; +0.03 charting coverage grade career avg

Deon Bush

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting total career snaps; −0.03 HS recruit rating

Jayron Kearse

−0.05 charting total career snaps; +0.05 charting coverage grade career avg; −0.04 boards with him top-100