3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Daniel Braverman (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #157 (range #155-#159, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Career trajectory in receiving yards: 135 → 997 → 1367. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #125 and the model won't take him before #157 — a 32-spot markdown. The 32-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Mike Thomas (age 21.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #148 (range #138-#158, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a value lean: #148 against a consensus #163 is a 15-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.
Draftanomics projects Tyler Boyd (age 21.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #122 (range #120-#124, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #59 and the model won't take him before #122 — a 63-spot markdown. The 63-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.