3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kenny Lawler (age 21.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #212 (range #210-#214, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 70% — scary. Drafted #243 by SEA in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #89 and the model won't take him before #212 — a 123-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Cody Core (age 22.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #204 (range #202-#206, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Career trajectory in receiving yards: 4 → 91 → 558 → 644. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Position-cohort z-score on production composite is -1.00 — well below the skill average. Raw box-score output didn't keep pace with peers. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 74 spots ahead of the room (board #204 vs consensus #278), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Pharoh Cooper (age 21.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #167 (range #165-#169, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #94 and the model won't take him before #167 — a 73-spot markdown. The 73-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.