3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects D.J. Reader (age 21.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #196 (range #189-#203, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #122 and the model won't take him before #196 — a 74-spot markdown. The 74-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Sheldon Day (age 21.8 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #82 (range #75-#89, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. School SP+ 22.4 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 12 spots below the room's consensus #70 — don't pay sticker price. The 12-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Adolphus Washington (age 23.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #124 (range #117-#131, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #62 and the model won't take him before #124 — a 62-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.