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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
EA
Eli Apple
CB · Ohio St.
20.7 yo · 6'1" · 199 lb
MA
Mackensie Alexander
CB · Clemson
22.4 yo · 5'10" · 190 lb
KF
Kendall Fuller
CB · Virginia Tech
21.2 yo · 5'11" · 187 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Eli Apple
Predicted pick
#83
range #27–#204
Bust probability· rough estimate
14%
Consensus rank
#28
on 20 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$8Mmodel
Mackensie Alexander
Predicted pick
#138
range #58–#246
Bust probability· rough estimate
13%
Consensus rank
#23
on 19 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel
Kendall Fuller
Predicted pick
#106
range #26–#214
Bust probability· rough estimate
10%
Consensus rank
#56
on 16 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$12Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Eli Apple· CB / S
  • Mackensie Alexander· CB / S
  • Kendall Fuller· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionEli Apple50
  • AthleticismEli Apple24
  • AgeKendall Fuller71
  • ConsensusMackensie Alexander53
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Eli Apple50
  • Breakout ageEli Apple50
  • WorkloadEli Apple50
  • RAS × productionEli Apple50

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Eli Apple
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Mackensie Alexander
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Kendall Fuller
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Eli Apple
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Mackensie Alexander
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Kendall Fuller
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Eli AppleMackensie AlexanderKendall Fuller· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Eli Apple

+0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting total career snaps; +0.04 charting coverage grade career avg

Mackensie Alexander

+0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting total career snaps; −0.03 athleticism (combine)

Kendall Fuller

+0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting total career snaps; +0.03 charting: pass-rush productivity (true pass sets), career avg