3 prospects · 2015 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Duke Johnson (age 21.6 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #62 (range #45-#79, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #62 stands alone — and with bust risk at 0%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects David Cobb (age 21.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #118 (range #116-#120, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. Production concentrated in one season: best 1629 rushing yards vs 4-season mean 724. Limited multi-year tape — small sample of true production. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #118 stands alone — and with bust risk at 6%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Todd Gurley (age 20.7 at draft) as a first-round pick at #29 (range #15-#43, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #29 stands alone — and with bust risk at 0%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.