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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
DJ
Duke Johnson
RB · Miami (FL)
21.6 yo · 5'9" · 207 lb
DC
David Cobb
RB · Minnesota
21.9 yo · 5'11" · 229 lb
JR
Josh Robinson
RB · Mississippi St.
22.7 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Duke Johnson
Predicted pick
#62
range #131–#228
Bust probability
26%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$12Mmodel
David Cobb
Predicted pick
#118
range #88–#248
Bust probability
10%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Josh Robinson
Predicted pick
#245
range #108–#260
Bust probability
69%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Duke Johnson· RB / WR / TE
  • David Cobb· RB / WR / TE
  • Josh Robinson· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDuke Johnson33
  • AthleticismDuke Johnson40
  • AgeDavid Cobb96
  • ConsensusDavid Cobb76
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Duke Johnson50
  • Breakout ageDuke Johnson50
  • WorkloadDuke Johnson100
  • RAS × productionDuke Johnson0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Duke Johnson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
David Cobb
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Josh Robinson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Duke Johnson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
David Cobb
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Josh Robinson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Duke JohnsonDavid CobbJosh Robinson· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Duke Johnson

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; −0.02 lowest board ranking

David Cobb

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 production trajectory; +0.02 age

Josh Robinson

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 production trajectory; −0.02 HS recruit rating