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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
TG
Todd Gurley
RB · Georgia
20.7 yo · 6'1" · 222 lb
MM
Marcus Murphy
RB · Missouri
23.6 yo · 5'9" · 198 lb
JA
Javorius Allen
RB · USC
23.7 yo · 6'0" · 221 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Todd Gurley
Predicted pick
#29
range #38–#164
Bust probability
19%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$19Mmodel
Marcus Murphy
Predicted pick
#208
range #125–#259
Bust probability
19%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Javorius Allen
Predicted pick
#172
range #115–#265
Bust probability
10%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Todd Gurley· RB / WR / TE
  • Marcus Murphy· RB / WR / TE
  • Javorius Allen· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTodd Gurley33
  • AthleticismTodd Gurley40
  • AgeTodd Gurley94
  • ConsensusTodd Gurley89
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Todd Gurley50
  • Breakout ageTodd Gurley50
  • WorkloadTodd Gurley100
  • RAS × productionTodd Gurley0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Todd Gurley
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Marcus Murphy
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Javorius Allen
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Todd Gurley
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Marcus Murphy
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Javorius Allen
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Todd GurleyMarcus MurphyJavorius Allen· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Todd Gurley

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; +0.03 charting total career snaps

Marcus Murphy

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 age; +0.03 charting total career snaps

Javorius Allen

−0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.04 age; +0.03 charting total career snaps