3 prospects · 2015 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jeff Heuerman (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #239 (range #237-#241, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #92 by DEN in 2015 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #239 stands alone — and with bust risk at 65%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Jesse James (age 20.9 at draft) as a first-round pick at #32 (range #30-#34, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. 40-yard dash of 4.83s — below-average separation speed for the position. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #32 stands alone — and with bust risk at 6%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Randall Telfer (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #198 (range #196-#200, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 77% — scary. Drafted #198 by CLE in 2015 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #198 stands alone — and with bust risk at 77%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.