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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
TL
Tyler Lockett
WR · Kansas St.
22.6 yo · 5'10" · 182 lb
BP
Breshad Perriman
WR · Central Florida
21.6 yo · 6'2" · 212 lb
AC
Amari Cooper
WR · Alabama
20.9 yo · 6'1" · 211 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Tyler Lockett
Predicted pick
#107
range #77–#237
Bust probability
18%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$27Mmodel
Breshad Perriman
Predicted pick
#163
range #106–#256
Bust probability
12%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$8Mmodel
Amari Cooper
Predicted pick
#18
range #27–#153
Bust probability
18%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$25Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Tyler Lockett· RB / WR / TE
  • Breshad Perriman· RB / WR / TE
  • Amari Cooper· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTyler Lockett33
  • AthleticismAmari Cooper91
  • AgeAmari Cooper99
  • ConsensusAmari Cooper100
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Tyler Lockett50
  • Breakout ageTyler Lockett50
  • WorkloadTyler Lockett100
  • RAS × productionTyler Lockett0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Tyler Lockett
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Breshad Perriman
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Amari Cooper
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Tyler Lockett
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Breshad Perriman
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Amari Cooper
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Tyler LockettBreshad PerrimanAmari Cooper· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Tyler Lockett

−0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.02 scout consensus; +0.02 charting total career snaps

Breshad Perriman

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 lowest board ranking; +0.02 age

Amari Cooper

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.02 age; +0.02 charting total career snaps