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Draftanomics

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
MP
Marcus Peters
CB · Washington
22.3 yo · 6'0" · 197 lb
CG
Charles Gaines
CB · Louisville
22.6 yo · 5'10" · 180 lb
SN
Steven Nelson
CB · Oregon St.
22.3 yo · 5'10" · 197 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Marcus Peters
Predicted pick
#80
range #70–#90
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$17Mmodel
Charles Gaines
Predicted pick
#143
range #133–#153
Bust probability· rough estimate
16%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Steven Nelson
Predicted pick
#38
range #24–#52
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$11Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Marcus Peters· CB / S
  • Charles Gaines· CB / S
  • Steven Nelson· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMarcus Peters50
  • AthleticismMarcus Peters42
  • AgeSteven Nelson98
  • ConsensusMarcus Peters59
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Marcus Peters50
  • Breakout ageMarcus Peters50
  • WorkloadMarcus Peters50
  • RAS × productionCharles Gaines100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Marcus Peters
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Charles Gaines
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Steven Nelson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Marcus Peters
Risks
  • Not on any consensus board
    Model has him at pick #80 but ZERO public big boards have him on their list. Either we're seeing something nobody else does, or the model is hallucinating.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Charles Gaines
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Steven Nelson
Risks
  • Not on any consensus board
    Model has him at pick #38 but ZERO public big boards have him on their list. Either we're seeing something nobody else does, or the model is hallucinating.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Marcus PetersCharles GainesSteven Nelson· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Marcus Peters

Draftanomics projects Marcus Peters (age 22.3 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #80 (range #70-#90, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #80 stands alone — and with bust risk at 0%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.

Charles Gaines

Draftanomics projects Charles Gaines (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #143 (range #133-#153, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 16% — manageable. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #143 stands alone — and with bust risk at 16%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.

Steven Nelson

Draftanomics projects Steven Nelson (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #38 (range #24-#52, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #38 stands alone — and with bust risk at 0%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.