Draftanomics
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • 2028 way-too-early
  • Draft news
  • Simulator
  • The house mock
  • Draft order
  • Trade calculator
  • The Scouting Slate
  • Sleepers & reaches
  • Movers & fallers
  • Player comps
  • Dynasty rookie board
  • Track record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Analyst leaderboard
My rankingsAccount
Get the weekly →
Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

Boards
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • Sleepers
Tools
  • Mock draft simulator
  • Plays Like
  • Dynasty rookie board
Track Record
  • Year-by-year results
  • Accountability Index
  • Our board, on the record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Methodology
  • Developers · free API
  • About
Account
  • My board
  • Weekly email
Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
  4. Compare

Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DT, EDGE, OLB)
AA
Arik Armstead
DT · Oregon
21.4 yo · — · —
LW
Leonard Williams
EDGE · USC
20.9 yo · — · —
DF
Dante Fowler
OLB · Florida
20.7 yo · 6'3" · 261 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Arik Armstead
Predicted pick
#30
range #39–#165
Bust probability
16%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$18Mmodel
Leonard Williams
Predicted pick
#8
range #17–#143
Bust probability
20%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$35Mmodel
Dante Fowler
Predicted pick
#19
range #28–#154
Bust probability
21%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$24Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Arik Armstead· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Leonard Williams· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Dante Fowler· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionArik Armstead0
  • AthleticismArik Armstead42
  • AgeLeonard Williams98
  • ConsensusLeonard Williams86
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Arik Armstead50
  • Breakout ageArik Armstead50
  • WorkloadArik Armstead50
  • RAS × productionArik Armstead100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Arik Armstead
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Leonard Williams
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Dante Fowler
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Arik Armstead
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Leonard Williams
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Dante Fowler
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Arik ArmsteadLeonard WilliamsDante Fowler· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Arik Armstead

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; +0.03 charting total career snaps

Leonard Williams

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 charting total career snaps; +0.03 HS recruit rating

Dante Fowler

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; +0.02 charting total career snaps