3 prospects · 2015 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Neal Sterling (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #189 (range #168-#210, wide band). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #189 stands alone — and with bust risk at 20%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects JJ Nelson (age 23.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #182 (range #161-#203, wide band). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #182 stands alone — and with bust risk at 20%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Da'Ron Brown (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #250 (range #248-#252, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 41% — real but not disqualifying. Drafted #233 by KAN in 2015 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #250 stands alone — and with bust risk at 41%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.