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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OLB)
KA
Kwon Alexander
OLB · LSU
20.7 yo · 6'1" · 227 lb
VB
Vic Beasley
OLB · Clemson
22.8 yo · 6'3" · 246 lb
ST
Shaq Thompson
OLB · Washington
21.0 yo · 6'0" · 228 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Kwon Alexander
Predicted pick
#7
range #10–#58
Bust probability
17%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$20Mmodel
Vic Beasley
Predicted pick
#166
range #109–#259
Bust probability
27%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$9Mmodel
Shaq Thompson
Predicted pick
#2
range #1–#12
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$19Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Kwon Alexander· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Vic Beasley· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Shaq Thompson· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionKwon Alexander0
  • AthleticismVic Beasley100
  • AgeShaq Thompson100
  • ConsensusKwon Alexander89
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Kwon Alexander50
  • Breakout ageKwon Alexander50
  • WorkloadKwon Alexander50
  • RAS × productionKwon Alexander100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Kwon Alexander
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Vic Beasley
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Shaq Thompson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Kwon Alexander
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Vic Beasley
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Shaq Thompson
Risks
  • Not on any consensus board
    Model has him at pick #2 but ZERO public big boards have him on their list. Either we're seeing something nobody else does, or the model is hallucinating.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Kwon AlexanderVic BeasleyShaq Thompson· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Kwon Alexander

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 charting total career snaps; +0.03 HS recruit rating

Vic Beasley

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.02 charting total career snaps; +0.02 athleticism (combine)

Shaq Thompson

Draftanomics projects Shaq Thompson (age 21.0 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #2 (range #1-#12, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #2 stands alone — and with bust risk at 0%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.