2 prospects · 2015 draft
James Sample and Mykkele Thompson project within 8 picks of each other, and neither bust risk nor the historical comps can separate them. Take the one at the position of greater need.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects James Sample (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #233 (range #223-#243, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #233 stands alone — and with bust risk at 20%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Mykkele Thompson (age 22.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #81 (range #67-#95, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #144 by NYG in 2015 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #81 stands alone — and with bust risk at 65%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.