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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
CM
Craig Mager
CB · Texas St.
22.9 yo · — · —
TW
Tray Walker
CB · Texas Southern
22.7 yo · — · —
TS
Tye Smith
CB · Towson
22.0 yo · 6'0" · 195 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Craig Mager
Predicted pick
#178
range #121–#271
Bust probability· rough estimate
30%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Tray Walker
Predicted pick
#109
range #79–#239
Bust probability· rough estimate
30%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Tye Smith
Predicted pick
#61
range #130–#227
Bust probability· rough estimate
43%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Craig Mager· CB / S
  • Tray Walker· CB / S
  • Tye Smith· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionCraig Mager50
  • AthleticismCraig Mager42
  • AgeTye Smith99
  • ConsensusTray Walker59
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Craig Mager50
  • Breakout ageCraig Mager50
  • WorkloadCraig Mager50
  • RAS × productionCraig Mager100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Craig Mager
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Tray Walker
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Tye Smith
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Craig Mager
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Tray Walker
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Tye Smith
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Craig MagerTray WalkerTye Smith· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Craig Mager

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; −0.02 lowest board ranking

Tray Walker

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; −0.02 lowest board ranking

Tye Smith

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; −0.02 lowest board ranking