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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
TM
Tevin Mitchel
CB · Arkansas
22.7 yo · — · —
MP
Marcus Peters
CB · Washington
22.3 yo · 6'0" · 197 lb
RM
Ryan Murphy
CB · Oregon St.
22.5 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Tevin Mitchel
Predicted pick
#72
range #72–#229
Bust probability· rough estimate
44%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Marcus Peters
Predicted pick
#80
range #80–#237
Bust probability· rough estimate
18%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$17Mmodel
Ryan Murphy
Predicted pick
#92
range #92–#249
Bust probability· rough estimate
30%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Tevin Mitchel· CB / S
  • Marcus Peters· CB / S
  • Ryan Murphy· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTevin Mitchel50
  • AthleticismTevin Mitchel42
  • AgeMarcus Peters98
  • ConsensusTevin Mitchel66
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Tevin Mitchel50
  • Breakout ageTevin Mitchel50
  • WorkloadTevin Mitchel50
  • RAS × productionTevin Mitchel100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Tevin Mitchel
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Marcus Peters
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Ryan Murphy
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Tevin Mitchel
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Marcus Peters
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Ryan Murphy
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Tevin MitchelMarcus PetersRyan Murphy· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Tevin Mitchel

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 charting total career snaps; −0.03 HS recruit rating

Marcus Peters

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.02 charting total career snaps; +0.02 age

Ryan Murphy

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.02 charting total career snaps; −0.02 scout consensus