Draftanomics
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • 2028 way-too-early
  • Draft news
  • Simulator
  • The house mock
  • Draft order
  • Trade calculator
  • The Scouting Slate
  • Sleepers & reaches
  • Movers & fallers
  • Player comps
  • Dynasty rookie board
  • Track record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Analyst leaderboard
My rankingsAccount
Get the weekly →
Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

Boards
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • Sleepers
Tools
  • Mock draft simulator
  • Plays Like
  • Dynasty rookie board
Track Record
  • Year-by-year results
  • Accountability Index
  • Our board, on the record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Methodology
  • Developers · free API
  • About
Account
  • My board
  • Weekly email
Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
  4. Compare

Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
MD
Mike Davis
RB · South Carolina
22.2 yo · 5'9" · 217 lb
KW
Karlos Williams
RB · Florida St.
22.0 yo · 6'1" · 230 lb
AA
Ameer Abdullah
RB · Nebraska
21.9 yo · 5'9" · 205 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Mike Davis
Predicted pick
#184
range #127–#277
Bust probability
21%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Karlos Williams
Predicted pick
#230
range #93–#245
Bust probability
18%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$8Mmodel
Ameer Abdullah
Predicted pick
#71
range #71–#228
Bust probability
8%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$16Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Mike Davis· RB / WR / TE
  • Karlos Williams· RB / WR / TE
  • Ameer Abdullah· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMike Davis33
  • AthleticismAmeer Abdullah96
  • AgeAmeer Abdullah98
  • ConsensusAmeer Abdullah83
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Mike Davis50
  • Breakout ageMike Davis50
  • WorkloadMike Davis100
  • RAS × productionMike Davis91

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Mike Davis
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Karlos Williams
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Ameer Abdullah
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Mike Davis
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Karlos Williams
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Ameer Abdullah
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Mike DavisKarlos WilliamsAmeer Abdullah· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Mike Davis

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.04 HS recruit rating; −0.02 scout consensus

Karlos Williams

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.05 HS recruit rating; +0.02 charting total career snaps

Ameer Abdullah

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.02 lowest board ranking; +0.02 age