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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
DB
Da'Ron Brown
WR · Northern Illinois
23.6 yo · 6'0" · 205 lb
NS
Neal Sterling
WR · Monmouth
23.3 yo · — · —
MA
Mario Alford
WR · West Virginia
23.2 yo · 5'8" · 180 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Da'Ron Brown
Predicted pick
#250
range #113–#265
Bust probability
41%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Neal Sterling
Predicted pick
#189
range #106–#240
Bust probability
20%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Mario Alford
Predicted pick
#234
range #97–#249
Bust probability
47%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Da'Ron Brown· RB / WR / TE
  • Neal Sterling· RB / WR / TE
  • Mario Alford· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDa'Ron Brown33
  • AthleticismDa'Ron Brown40
  • AgeNeal Sterling33
  • ConsensusNeal Sterling65
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Da'Ron Brown50
  • Breakout ageDa'Ron Brown50
  • WorkloadDa'Ron Brown100
  • RAS × productionDa'Ron Brown0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Da'Ron Brown
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Neal Sterling
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Mario Alford
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Da'Ron Brown
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Neal Sterling
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Mario Alford
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Da'Ron BrownNeal SterlingMario Alford· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Da'Ron Brown

−0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.03 age; −0.03 production trajectory

Neal Sterling

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; −0.03 age

Mario Alford

−0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.03 Power-5 production share; −0.03 age