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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OLB, EDGE)
MS
Martrell Spaight
OLB · Arkansas
21.7 yo · — · —
NO
Nate Orchard
EDGE · Utah
22.3 yo · 6'3" · 250 lb
SR
Shaquille Riddick
EDGE · West Virginia
21.9 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Martrell Spaight
Predicted pick
#5
range #8–#56
Bust probability
21%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$9Mmodel
Nate Orchard
Predicted pick
#17
range #26–#152
Bust probability
26%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$13Mmodel
Shaquille Riddick
Predicted pick
#10
range #19–#145
Bust probability
44%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$16Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Martrell Spaight· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Nate Orchard· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Shaquille Riddick· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMartrell Spaight0
  • AthleticismMartrell Spaight42
  • AgeMartrell Spaight99
  • ConsensusMartrell Spaight89
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Martrell Spaight50
  • Breakout ageMartrell Spaight50
  • WorkloadMartrell Spaight50
  • RAS × productionMartrell Spaight100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Martrell Spaight
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Nate Orchard
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Shaquille Riddick
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Martrell Spaight
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Nate Orchard
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Shaquille Riddick
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Martrell SpaightNate OrchardShaquille Riddick· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Martrell Spaight

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 charting total career snaps; +0.03 HS recruit rating

Nate Orchard

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; +0.03 charting total career snaps

Shaquille Riddick

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 charting total career snaps; +0.03 HS recruit rating