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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
LW
Leonard Williams
EDGE · USC
20.9 yo · — · —
SR
Shane Ray
EDGE · Missouri
21.9 yo · 6'3" · 245 lb
SR
Shaquille Riddick
EDGE · West Virginia
21.9 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Leonard Williams
Predicted pick
#8
range #17–#143
Bust probability
20%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$35Mmodel
Shane Ray
Predicted pick
#95
range #95–#252
Bust probability
8%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Shaquille Riddick
Predicted pick
#10
range #19–#145
Bust probability
44%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$16Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Leonard Williams· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Shane Ray· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Shaquille Riddick· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionLeonard Williams0
  • AthleticismLeonard Williams42
  • AgeShaquille Riddick99
  • ConsensusShaquille Riddick89
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Leonard Williams50
  • Breakout ageLeonard Williams50
  • WorkloadLeonard Williams50
  • RAS × productionLeonard Williams100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Leonard Williams
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Shane Ray
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Shaquille Riddick
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Leonard Williams
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Shane Ray
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Shaquille Riddick
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Leonard WilliamsShane RayShaquille Riddick· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Leonard Williams

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 charting total career snaps; +0.03 HS recruit rating

Shane Ray

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 HS recruit rating; +0.03 charting total career snaps

Shaquille Riddick

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 charting total career snaps; +0.03 HS recruit rating