3 prospects · 2015 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Deon Simon (age 24.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #220 (range #203-#237, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #223 by NYJ in 2015 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #220 stands alone — and with bust risk at 65%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Darius Kilgo (age 23.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #120 (range #106-#134, wide band). Bust probability sits at 42% — real but not disqualifying. Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #120 stands alone — and with bust risk at 42%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Xavier Cooper (age 23.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #96 (range #82-#110, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #96 stands alone — and with bust risk at 0%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.