3 prospects · 2015 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kennard Backman (age 22.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #149 (range #147-#151, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 13% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #149 stands alone — and with bust risk at 13%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects James O'Shaughnessy (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #188 (range #167-#209, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #188 stands alone — and with bust risk at 0%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Malcolm Johnson (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #218 (range #216-#220, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 72% — scary. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #218 stands alone — and with bust risk at 72%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.