3 prospects · 2015 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects A.J. Derby (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #52 (range #35-#69, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #202 by NWE in 2015 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #52 stands alone — and with bust risk at 65%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Blake Bell (age 23.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #226 (range #224-#228, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. Age 23.7 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #226 stands alone — and with bust risk at 6%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Gerald Christian (age 23.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #249 (range #247-#251, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #256 by ARI in 2015 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #249 stands alone — and with bust risk at 65%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.