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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (S)
AA
Adrian Amos
S · Penn St.
22.0 yo · 6'0" · 218 lb
LC
Landon Collins
S · Alabama
21.3 yo · 6'0" · 228 lb
CT
Cedric Thompson
S · Minnesota
22.2 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Adrian Amos
Predicted pick
#37
range #106–#203
Bust probability· rough estimate
9%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$14Mmodel
Landon Collins
Predicted pick
#12
range #21–#147
Bust probability· rough estimate
9%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$19Mmodel
Cedric Thompson
Predicted pick
#40
range #109–#206
Bust probability· rough estimate
33%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$9Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Adrian Amos· CB / S
  • Landon Collins· CB / S
  • Cedric Thompson· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionAdrian Amos50
  • AthleticismAdrian Amos42
  • AgeAdrian Amos100
  • ConsensusLandon Collins100
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Adrian Amos50
  • Breakout ageAdrian Amos50
  • WorkloadAdrian Amos50
  • RAS × productionAdrian Amos100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Adrian Amos
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Landon Collins
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Cedric Thompson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Adrian Amos
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Landon Collins
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Cedric Thompson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Adrian AmosLandon CollinsCedric Thompson· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Adrian Amos

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.02 lowest board ranking; +0.02 charting total career snaps

Landon Collins

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 charting total career snaps; +0.03 HS recruit rating

Cedric Thompson

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 position role purity; +0.02 age