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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
AC
Alex Carter
CB · Stanford
20.5 yo · 6'0" · 196 lb
CG
Charles Gaines
CB · Louisville
22.6 yo · 5'10" · 180 lb
MP
Marcus Peters
CB · Washington
22.3 yo · 6'0" · 197 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Alex Carter
Predicted pick
#22
range #31–#157
Bust probability· rough estimate
9%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Charles Gaines
Predicted pick
#143
range #113–#273
Bust probability· rough estimate
28%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Marcus Peters
Predicted pick
#80
range #80–#237
Bust probability· rough estimate
18%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$17Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Alex Carter· CB / S
  • Charles Gaines· CB / S
  • Marcus Peters· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionAlex Carter50
  • AthleticismAlex Carter42
  • AgeAlex Carter98
  • ConsensusMarcus Peters59
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Alex Carter50
  • Breakout ageAlex Carter50
  • WorkloadAlex Carter50
  • RAS × productionAlex Carter100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Alex Carter
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Charles Gaines
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Marcus Peters
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Alex Carter
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Charles Gaines
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Marcus Peters
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Alex CarterCharles GainesMarcus Peters· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Alex Carter

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; +0.03 charting total career snaps

Charles Gaines

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.02 charting total career snaps; −0.02 scout consensus

Marcus Peters

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.02 charting total career snaps; +0.02 age