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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (ILB, EDGE, DT)
BM
Benardrick McKinney
ILB · Mississippi St.
22.4 yo · — · —
PS
Preston Smith
EDGE · Mississippi St.
22.4 yo · — · —
TD
Tyeler Davison
DT · Fresno St.
22.6 yo · 6'2" · 316 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Benardrick McKinney
Predicted pick
#134
range #104–#264
Bust probability
27%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$14Mmodel
Preston Smith
Predicted pick
#164
range #107–#257
Bust probability
16%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$22Mmodel
Tyeler Davison
Predicted pick
#176
range #119–#269
Bust probability
27%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Benardrick McKinney· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Preston Smith· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Tyeler Davison· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionBenardrick McKinney0
  • AthleticismBenardrick McKinney42
  • AgeBenardrick McKinney97
  • ConsensusBenardrick McKinney50
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Benardrick McKinney50
  • Breakout ageBenardrick McKinney50
  • WorkloadBenardrick McKinney50
  • RAS × productionBenardrick McKinney100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Benardrick McKinney
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Preston Smith
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Tyeler Davison
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Benardrick McKinney
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Preston Smith
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Tyeler Davison
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Benardrick McKinneyPreston SmithTyeler Davison· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Benardrick McKinney

−0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.02 lowest board ranking; +0.02 age

Preston Smith

−0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.02 lowest board ranking; +0.02 age

Tyeler Davison

−0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.02 lowest board ranking; +0.02 charting total career snaps