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2025 NFL Draft prospect
Cam Ward
age 22.9
On the live board, bust risk sits at 3% and the realistic range is No. 1 to No. 54.
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Cam Ward at pick #11; he was actually picked #1 by TEN. 1 NFL season in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 3.0 of 20 per season). The 4-tier model gives him a 48% chance at an elite career.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Cam Ward at #11 on draft night — a 1st round grade — and TEN took him at No. 1. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage and scout consensus. Bust risk projects at 3%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 1, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Draftanomics Pick?
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk1
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports