Refreshed just now
rank#21$4M
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Matthew Bergeron at pick #21; he was actually picked #38 by ATL. 3 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 6.0 of 20 per season), and the second-contract question is still open — no new deal yet. The 4-tier model gives him a 42% chance at an elite career. NFL grades have been modest so far (9% recent-3, 20% peak across 2 seasons). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $20M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#21OL·Syracuse
We had him No. 21 on draft night; ATL didn't call his name until No. 38 — a 17-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Matthew Bergeron at #21 on draft night — a 1st round grade — and ATL took him at No. 38. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage. Bust risk projects at 2%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #61 pre-draft; our board was 40 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 1, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production2
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports