Refreshed just now
rank#229
Big Ten→ MIA's 2023 class
Limited public-board coverage (1 board) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Ryan Hayes at pick #229; he was actually picked #238 by MIA. 1 NFL season in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading 0.0 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $1.0M a year. The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 1%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 1 seasons).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#229OL·Michigan
We had him No. 229 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — MIA took him at No. 238. The seasons since are the scoreboard.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Ryan Hayes at #229 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and MIA took him at No. 238. Bust risk projects at 5%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #216 pre-draft; our board sat 13 spots lower.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production1
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports