Refreshed just now
rank#12$6.1M
Big Ten→ NYG's 2023 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded John Michael Schmitz at pick #12; he was actually picked #57 by NYG. 3 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 5.4 of 20 per season), and the second-contract question is still open — no new deal yet. The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter. NFL grades have been modest so far (4% recent-3, 10% peak across 2 seasons). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $14M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#122nd-deal AAV at this slot$6.1M/yrOL·Minnesota
We had him No. 12 on draft night; NYG didn't call his name until No. 57 — a 45-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had John Michael Schmitz at #12 on draft night — a 1st round grade — and NYG took him at No. 57, 45 picks later than our grade. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage and top-50 board coverage. Bust risk projects at 9%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #32 pre-draft; our board was 20 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 1, and it updates whenever the model does. See for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production2
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports