Refreshed just now
rank#104$1.2M
Limited public-board coverage (2 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Carter Warren at pick #104; he was actually picked #120 by NYJ. 2 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 5.8 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $0.2M a year. The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (3% recent-3, 8% peak across 2 seasons). Model predicted $10M/yr; actual $0M (over by $10M).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#104OL·Pittsburgh
We had him No. 104 on draft night; NYJ didn't call his name until No. 120 — a 16-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Carter Warren at #104 on draft night — a Day 2 grade — and NYJ took him at No. 120. Bust risk projects at 10%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #169 pre-draft; our board was 65 spots higher.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production2
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports