Refreshed just now
rank#164$1M
Big Ten→ HOU's 2023 class
Limited public-board coverage (1 board) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Juice Scruggs at pick #164; he was actually picked #62 by HOU. 3 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 4.3 of 20 per season), and the second-contract question is still open — no new deal yet. The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter. NFL grades have been modest so far (5% recent-3, 14% peak across 2 seasons). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $13M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#164OL·Penn St.
The league moved faster than our board — HOU took him at No. 62, 102 picks ahead of our No. 164 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Juice Scruggs at #164 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and HOU took him at No. 62, 102 picks earlier than our grade. The model's case leans on his recruiting pedigree. Bust risk projects at 35%, near the position baseline. The room had him #178 pre-draft; our board was 14 spots higher.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production2
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports