Refreshed just now
rank#48$2.3M
Big Ten→ TEN's 2023 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Jaelyn Duncan at pick #48; he was actually picked #186 by TEN. 2 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 5.2 of 20 per season), and the second-contract question is still open — no new deal yet. The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 1% peak across 2 seasons). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $5M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#48OL·Maryland
We had him No. 48 on draft night; TEN didn't call his name until No. 186 — a 138-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Jaelyn Duncan at #48 on draft night — a Day 2 grade — and TEN took him at No. 186, 138 picks later than our grade. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage. Bust risk projects at 49%, elevated against the position baseline. The room had him #120 pre-draft; our board was 72 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 2, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production2
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports