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rank#40$2.9M
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Antonio Johnson at pick #40; he was actually picked #160 by JAX. 3 NFL seasons in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading 1.9 of 20 per season), and the second-contract question is still open — no new deal yet. So far, the league's caution is winning the argument. The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 1% peak across 2 seasons). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $6M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#40CB·Texas A&M
We had him No. 40 on draft night; JAX didn't call his name until No. 160 — a 120-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Antonio Johnson at #40 on draft night — a Day 2 grade — and JAX took him at No. 160, 120 picks later than our grade. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage and his recruiting pedigree. Bust risk projects at 24%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #64 pre-draft; our board was 24 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 2, and it updates whenever the model does. See for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production2
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports