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rank#178$1M
Limited public-board coverage (1 board) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Jordan McFadden at pick #178; he was actually picked #156 by LAC. 3 NFL seasons in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading 2.9 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $1.0M a year. The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 2 seasons). Model predicted $7M/yr; actual $1M (over by $6M).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#178OL·Clemson
The league moved faster than our board — LAC took him at No. 156, 22 picks ahead of our No. 178 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Jordan McFadden at #178 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and LAC took him at No. 156, 22 picks earlier than our grade. The model's case leans on his age curve. Bust risk projects at 6%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #168 pre-draft; our board sat 10 spots lower.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production2
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports