Refreshed just now
rank#173$1M
Big Ten→ NWE's 2023 class
Limited public-board coverage (1 board) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Atonio Mafi at pick #173; he was actually picked #144 by NWE. 3 NFL seasons in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading 0.1 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $1.0M a year. The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 7%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 1% peak across 2 seasons). Model predicted $6M/yr; actual $1M (over by $5M).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#173OL·UCLA
The league moved faster than our board — NWE took him at No. 144, 29 picks ahead of our No. 173 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Atonio Mafi at #173 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and NWE took him at No. 144, 29 picks earlier than our grade. Bust risk projects at 3%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #200 pre-draft; our board was 27 spots higher.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production2
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports