Refreshed just now
rank#10$6.7M
Big Ten→ ARI's 2023 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Paris Johnson at pick #10; he was actually picked #6 by ARI. 3 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 5.7 of 20 per season), and the second-contract question is still open — no new deal yet. The 4-tier model gives him a 43% chance at an elite career. NFL grades have been modest so far (6% recent-3, 13% peak across 2 seasons). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $26M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#102nd-deal AAV at this slot$6.7M/yrOL·Ohio St.
We had him No. 10 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — ARI took him at No. 6. The seasons since are the scoreboard.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Paris Johnson at #10 on draft night — a 1st round grade — and ARI took him at No. 6. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage and scout consensus. Bust risk projects at 5%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 1, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production2
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports