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2022 NFL Draft prospect
Sauce Gardner
age 21.7
On the live board, bust risk sits at 25% and the realistic range is No. 3 to No. 64.
rank#21$4M
Big 12→ NYJ's 2022 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Sauce Gardner at pick #21; he was actually picked #4 by NYJ. 4 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 8.1 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $30.1M a year. The 4-tier model sees a strong shot at elite: 71% probability of Pro-Bowl-level career. His NFL play has graded as a solid starter (13% recent-3, 34% peak across 3 seasons). Model predicted $35M/yr; actual $30M (over by $5M).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#21CB·Cincinnati
The league moved faster than our board — NYJ took him at No. 4, 17 picks ahead of our No. 21 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Sauce Gardner at #21 on draft night — a 1st round grade — and NYJ took him at No. 4. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage and scout consensus. Bust risk projects at 25%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #7 pre-draft; our board sat 14 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 1, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production3
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk1
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports