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2021 NFL Draft prospect
Ernest Jones
age 21.4 · 6'1" · 230 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 1% and the realistic range is No. 125 to No. 275.
Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Ernest Jones at pick #182; he was actually picked #103 by LAR. 5 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 6.3 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $9.5M a year. The 4-tier model sees a strong shot at elite: 69% probability of Pro-Bowl-level career. His NFL play has graded as a solid starter (14% recent-3, 29% peak across 4 seasons). Model predicted $13M/yr; actual $10M (over by $3M).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#182LB·South Carolina
The league moved faster than our board — LAR took him at No. 103, 79 picks ahead of our No. 182 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production4
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk3
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports