Refreshed just now
rank#134$1.1M
Big Ten→ DET's 2021 class
Limited public-board coverage (1 board) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Derrick Barnes at pick #134; he was actually picked #113 by DET. 5 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 5.1 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $8.0M a year. The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 2% peak across 4 seasons). The AAV predictor called it: model said $7M/yr, actual was $8M.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#134EDGE·Purdue
The league moved faster than our board — DET took him at No. 113, 21 picks ahead of our No. 134 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Derrick Barnes at #134 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and DET took him at No. 113, 21 picks earlier than our grade. The model's case leans on his age curve. Bust risk projects at 11%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #33 pre-draft; our board sat 101 spots lower.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production4
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports