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rank#191$1M
Big 12→ CHI's 2021 class
Limited public-board coverage (1 board) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Khyiris Tonga at pick #191; he was actually picked #250 by CHI. 5 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 5.1 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $0.8M a year. The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 1% peak across 4 seasons).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#191DL·BYU
We had him No. 191 on draft night; CHI didn't call his name until No. 250 — a 59-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Khyiris Tonga at #191 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and CHI took him at No. 250, 59 picks later than our grade. The model's case leans on his age curve. Bust risk projects at 11%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #53 pre-draft; our board sat 138 spots lower.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production4
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports