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2021 NFL Draft prospect
Evan McPherson
age 21.8 · 5'11" · 185 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 31% and the realistic range is No. 131 to No. 228.
Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Evan McPherson at pick #62; he was actually picked #149 by CIN. 5 NFL seasons in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading -0.7 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $5.5M a year. So far, the league's caution is winning the argument. The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter. NFL grades have been modest so far (5% recent-3, 10% peak across 4 seasons). The AAV predictor called it: model said $5M/yr, actual was $6M.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Speculative#62K·Florida
We had him No. 62 on draft night; CIN didn't call his name until No. 149 — a 87-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production4
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk2
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports