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rank#207
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Jason Strowbridge at pick #207; he was actually picked #154 by MIA. 1 NFL season in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading 0.6 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $0.2M a year. The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 3%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 1 seasons).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#207EDGE·North Carolina
The league moved faster than our board — MIA took him at No. 154, 53 picks ahead of our No. 207 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Jason Strowbridge at #207 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and MIA took him at No. 154, 53 picks earlier than our grade. The model's case leans on his age curve. Bust risk projects at 24%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #148 pre-draft; our board sat 59 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 6, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production1
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports