Refreshed just now
rank#40$2.9M
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Justin Layne at pick #40; he was actually picked #83 by PIT. 4 NFL seasons in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading 1.3 of 20 per season), and the second-contract question is still open — no new deal yet. So far, the league's caution is winning the argument. The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 4 seasons).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#40CB·Michigan St.
We had him No. 40 on draft night; PIT didn't call his name until No. 83 — a 43-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Justin Layne at #40 on draft night — a Day 2 grade — and PIT took him at No. 83, 43 picks later than our grade. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage. Bust risk projects at 11%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #52 pre-draft; our board was 12 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 2, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production4
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports