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2016 NFL Draft prospect
Andrew Billings
age 21.1 · 6'1" · 311 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 26% and the realistic range is No. 17 to No. 147.
rank#43$2.7M
Big 12→ CIN's 2016 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Andrew Billings at pick #43; he was actually picked #122 by CIN. 1 NFL season in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 10.0 of 20 per season). So far, that's a point for our board. The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter. Model expects a second-deal AAV around $7M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#43DT·Baylor
We had him No. 43 on draft night; CIN didn't call his name until No. 122 — a 79-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Andrew Billings at #43 on draft night — a Day 2 grade — and CIN took him at No. 122, 79 picks later than our grade. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage. Bust risk projects at 26%, near the position baseline. The room had him #22 pre-draft; our board sat 21 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 2, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk1
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports