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2016 NFL Draft prospect
Ezekiel Elliott
age 20.8 · 6'0" · 225 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 9% and the realistic range is No. 2 to No. 28.
rank#4$9.6M
Big Ten→ DAL's 2016 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Ezekiel Elliott at pick #4; he was actually picked #4 by DAL. 2 NFL seasons in, he's producing like a real starter (grading 14.0 of 20 per season). The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. Model expects a second-deal AAV around $24M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#42nd-deal AAV at this slot$9.6M/yrRB·Ohio St.
We had him No. 4 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — DAL took him at No. 4. The seasons since are the scoreboard.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Ezekiel Elliott at #4 on draft night — a blue chip grade — and DAL took him at No. 4. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage and scout consensus. Bust risk projects at 9%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 1, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk0
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports