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2016 NFL Draft prospect
Carson Wentz
age 23.3
On the live board, bust risk sits at 16% and the realistic range is No. 1 to No. 56.
rank#13
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Carson Wentz at pick #13; he was actually picked #2 by PHI. 2 NFL seasons in, he's producing like a real starter (grading 12.3 of 20 per season). The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter. Model expects a second-deal AAV around $46M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#132nd-deal AAV at this slot$5.8M/yrQB·North Dakota St.
We had him No. 13 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — PHI took him at No. 2. The seasons since are the scoreboard.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Carson Wentz at #13 on draft night — a 1st round grade — and PHI took him at No. 2. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage and scout consensus. Bust risk projects at 16%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 1, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk2
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports