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2016 NFL Draft prospect
Jatavis Brown
age 22.2
On the live board, bust risk sits at 36% and the realistic range is No. 13 to No. 182.
rank#49$2.3M
Mid-American→ SDG's 2016 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Jatavis Brown at pick #49; he was actually picked #175 by SDG. 2 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 7.2 of 20 per season), and the second-contract question is still open — no new deal yet. So far, that's a point for our board. Model expects a second-deal AAV around $7M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Speculative#49OLB·Akron
We had him No. 49 on draft night; SDG didn't call his name until No. 175 — a 126-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Jatavis Brown at #49 on draft night — a Day 2 grade — and SDG took him at No. 175, 126 picks later than our grade. Bust risk projects at 36%, near the position baseline. The room had him #142 pre-draft; our board was 93 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 2, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk2
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports